EURUSD Monthly Forecast & Analysis – 1st April 2022

EUR vs USD Forecast 

Introduction

This trading week, the online brokers and investors are hoping that there could be a peace deal between the Ukraine and Russia representatives as they negotiate in Turkey. This will help the Euro to recover from its fall against the US dollar amidst the level of inflation that has slowed the economy.

EURO and US News

GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE 

The economic sentiment is surveyed among 2000 consumers who were asked to rate the relative level of the past and future economic conditions in terms of climate for major purchases, personal financial situation, and other aspects of the economy.

If the outcome of the survey is above 0 it shows optimism in the economy while a lower figure shows pessimism. 

The forecast is -14.6 while the previous is -8.5.

Core PCE Price Index m/m  

The core consumer price index differs from Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) because it focuses on services and goods that are used and consumed by individuals and the prices are focused on the total expenditures per item which also expose the spending habits of consumers. However, food and energy are excluded from the survey.

If the outcome is greater than the forecast it is good for the dollar but a lower result will strengthen the Euro currency.

The previous data was 0.5% while the forecast is 0.4%.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Objective: Down Trend Buildups 

EURUSD monthly chart - 1st April 2022

Monthly Resistance   1.19092, 1.17000.

Monthly Support levels 1.08085, 1.06361.

The forex market will be relieved as the negotiation is on among the two parties progresses. A ceasefire deal is a welcome development for the Ukrainians and they are not willing to compromise their territory or sovereignty. However, the Russian wants to have control of some particular territory under Ukraine territory.

The Euro made about 2.92% up to as the EURUSD pair moved upward today at the writing of the report. Previously from the zones, the Bulls were able to push the price up as of 01 March 2020, and the Euro was stronger than the dollar during the pandemic period. The zone will be a tough nut for the bears to breakthrough in the coming months.

Weekly Chart Down Trend

EURUSD weekly chart - 1st April 2022

Weekly Resistance levels 1.16650, 1.19150

Weekly Support levels 1.15230, 1.16720

The EURUSD pair is in a weekly chart channel, the pair is still in a bearish trend. The market is in a corrective phase as the price retest the previous zone that turned into resistance. The bullish correction of the weekly candlesticks may still gain momentum to retest the high of the weekly channel as the days unfolds. If economic events favor the European zones the bullish run will continue. 

The forex market may continue to experience slow activities until the NFP report comes out during the week.

Online brokers and other market participants will be watching out for Euro one sentiment outcome and inflation report when the economic calendar releases the figures. 

Daily Chart Projections: Downtrend 

EURUSD daily chart - 1st April 2022

Daily Resistance Levels 1.1500, 1.11400

Daily Support levels 1.09482, 1.08377.

The Forex market is active as the EURUSD pair is showing some levels of momentum as the price is rising towards the 1.11400 resistance level.  A close above the 50 EMA will likely encourage the online brokers to look out for long opportunities. As Ukraine proposes neutral status, the euro saw a good jump as the negotiations process is still on.

However, if a deal is not reached at the end of the negotiation, the price of the EURUSD pair will drop and it will close lower than the support level of 1.08377 which will weaken the euro. 

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

If the Russian and Ukraine peace talk can be achieved and both parties can reach an agreement, it will help the EURUSD pair to regain some lost levels. The German consumer confidence slumped in April due to the crisis in Ukraine. 

However, the ongoing talk is a booster for the long position online brokers who wish to trade long. Other key fundamentals during the week will influence the direction of the market.

This week is also an important week for the US market and other related markets as the NFP result is expected during the week. A favorable outcome will strengthen the US dollar.

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I'm based in London ( England, UK )
I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.

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