EUR vs USD Forecast
The proposed ban on Russian Oil has triggered fear among Online brokers and Investors as they are concerned about the level of inflation and the slow growth of the economy. The upcoming meeting of the monetary policymakers will also be a focal point this trading week as the ECB rate will be of concern to investors and traders.
However, the war in Ukraine is a serious concern for the European Central Bank and the European market at large. Therefore, online brokers, as well as investors, are following the peace talk between Ukraine and Russia with an expectation that both parties will choose the part of peace and the global economy will be settled.
EURO and US News
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
The monetary policymakers are meeting this trading week to delegate on the ECB rate.
However, the war happening in Ukraine will likely change some decisions the committee might have reached. Some analyst thinks that they may leave their options open as they provide useful information to investors and online broker because the monetary policy statement tells investors about their decision-making concerning the economic condition influencing their actions.
A more hawkish statement is good for the euro currency when the president presents the interest rate statement.
Core CPI m/m
The core consumer price index is also known as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the price for energy and food do account for the quarter of CPI because they are volatile and can disturb the actual trend that is why the core data is given attention by online brokers, traders, and the FOMC.
The changes in the price of goods and services that were purchased by consumers are what is measured in ascertaining the percentage change of CPI within a period. If the outcome is greater than the forecast it is good for the US dollar but a low result will strengthen the Euro currency.
The previous data was 0.6% while the forecast is 0.5%.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
MN – Chart Outlook: High Selling Pressure
Monthly Resistance 1.19092, 1.22664, 1.14950.
Monthly Support levels 1.17042, 1.11215, 1.06361.
The Euro vs. USD plunged by roughly 11.61% from 01 June 2021 down to 01 March 2022 as online brokers on short trades were able to ride the bearish trend to the low of the current market price of 1.09080. If the price is likely to reach the psychological zone of 02 March 2020 (1.06361) we may see the price reverse around the zone for a correction of the bearish run.
The Forex market shows the high demand for safe-haven assets after the Russian army broke into the Ukraine territory and the Euro lost its momentum to the US currency. If the support level fails to hold the price it will drop lower but if it holds on, we shall see the price bounce from the zones.
Weekly Chart Down Trend
Weekly Resistance levels 1.16650, 1.19150
Weekly Support levels 1.15230, 1.16720
The weekly chart shows that the bearish trend is about to continue as the price has broken another market structure of 1.11382 support zones on the time frame. The weekly candlestick of the EURUSD pair broke out below the zone to shift the forex market away from any bullish run.
The ongoing meeting among the Russian authorities and the Ukraine representatives has not shown much progress as the delegation is still on. Online brokers and other market participants will be following up with every development so that they are not trading in the wrong direction of price.
Daily Chart Projections: Downtrend
Daily Resistance Levels 1.15000, 1.16001
Daily Support levels 1.1100, 1.08060, 1.0700.
The Bear’s pressure took the EURUSD pair down by breaking below the support zone of 1.1100 when the Russian military attacked the Ukraine army. The crisis has forced online brokers to pull out their investment and lock it in other assets that have some level of safety. Due to the ongoing negotiations, the price has seen some levels of exhaustion, and if there is progress the EURUSD pair may reverse around the support zone of 1.07000.
The Forex market will also give attention to the ECB monetary policy statement that will be read during the week. An expectation of hawkish news will be good for the European currency when the outcome is made known to investors and online brokers as well.
Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives
Analysts, investors, and online brokers are interested in the ECB monetary policy and the level of progress between Russia and Ukraine negotiations because it will help the European economy to be stable.
The psychological zone for the EURUSD pair is around the 1.06000 level because a close below the area will be that the downward trajectory of the forex market will continue.
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