EURUSD Weekly outlook – 18th February 2022

EUR vs USD Forecast 

Introduction

The trading week started with the US DXY in positive territory as the bullish trend continues to surge higher, also the Russian military buildup continues to strengthen the dollar. The hawkish statement by James Bullard a member of the Fed who voted for a rate hike wished to see another 100bps of rate hikes during the year. 

Online brokers will be following up on his further briefings to know if he will change his statement or stick to the hawkish plan on the interest rate.

EURO and US News

Final French CPI m/m

The French CPI is usually released 13 days after the previous month and it has the preliminary and the final reports. The preliminary usually have a higher impact on the forex market before the final report is released. However, the Final CPI measures the changes in the price of various goods and services that the consumers purchased within a certain period.

The forecast is 0.3% while the previous is 0.3%

Core Retail Sales m/m  

The core retail sales report will be the focal point for online brokers and investors as the bearish trend on the EURUSD pair slows down. The report on the retail sales will exclude the automobiles while it focuses on the total values of sales in percentage at the retail level. 

Automobile sales could be volatile and distorting, it also accounts for 20% of the retail orders which is why automobile sales are excluded.

If we get a report greater than the forecast, it is good for the currency, but a lower outcome is not suitable for the currency. The previous data was -2.3% while the forecast is 1.0%.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart Objective: Down Trend Buildups 

EURUSD Monthly chart - 18th February 2022

Monthly Resistance   1.22510, 1.14830, 1.19001.

Monthly Support levels 1.7742, 1.11251.

The online brokers in a bullish direction pushed the EURUSD pair up towards the high of 1.14830 before the Bears rejected the advancement. The price has been consolidating between the high of 1.14830 level of resistance and the support level of 1.11215. As the tension in Ukraine increases, the US dollar will keep growing in strength, looking at the forex chart, the EURUSD pair is still on a bearish run. 

The US dollar remains a safe haven for investors, and online brokers, therefore to reduce the loss of capital, they will move their capital to different portfolios.

Weekly Chart Down Trend

EURUSD weekly chart - 18th Feb 2022

Weekly Resistance levels 1.14948, 1.19000, 1.23570

Weekly Support levels 1.11861, 1.11113.

Two weeks ago, we saw the EURUSD close on a bullish note with expectations that the bearish trend may reverse because of the weekly engulfed candlestick. However, the price failed to trend above the resistance zones of 1.14948 as the short position traders took advantage of the zones.

The Euros may show some signs of strength on the forex market as Russian authorities call its military back to base after completing its military drills close to the Ukrainian border. However, some market analysts will want to see concrete evidence that the tension is over before the forex market will take its actual direction.

Daily Chart Projections: Downtrend 

Daily Resistance Levels 1.15100, 1.16000

Daily Support levels 1.12760 1.11200

The EURUSD may have found support around the 1.12760 zones since the tension in Ukraine subsides. However, market participants are following the news around the Russia and Ukraine border because the tension is not completely off the table. The Bulls will take advantage of the current support to break and close above the 1.15100 resistance zones for the bullish trend to rally.

If we get a failed attempt of the bullish move around the resistance levels the Bears may take the price down to the support zone of 1.11200 a psychological zone for online brokers.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

Analysts are paying attention to the 1.12760 zones on the daily chart. A close below will see the US dollar gain momentum against the other majors. However, online brokers are waiting to see the pair take its shape as they wait for the price to either breakout above the high of 1.15100 or close below the 1.12760 levels. 

The de-escalation of the Russia and Ukraine crisis will see the EURUSD pair surge high as the tension will reduce the fear factor influencing the forex market and stock market as well.

I'm based in London ( England, UK )
I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.

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