This week important news reports are going to be released from the US and that will likely in the most part affect where the USDSGD pair trades during the week. Particularly important will be November’s jobs report that will be released on Friday, primarily because it will be a decision factor for the FOMC at their meeting on 13 and 14 of December, where they are expected to raise interest rates in the US again after one year on hold.
It will be imperative that the Non-Farm payrolls report shows job gains were at least close to forecasts because in case the NFP is a big miss then there is a possibility that the Fed won’t raise rates in two weeks. And that, in turn, will cause a big dollar sell-off – meaning USDSGD will move down.
The bullish trend in USDSGD has hit a stumbling block near the resistance zone around the 1.44 level. This happens after the uptrend extended above the resistance line of the channel. A pause in an overextended trend like this is normal, and judging by the strength of the uptrend and the strength of the US Dollar fundamentally at the moment, it will not be surprising if the highs at 1.44 are exceeded.
However, as we said earlier, most of it will depend on NFP this week and the Fed in two weeks. If we get an unambiguously positive report on Friday then Singapore binary options traders will start to massively price in a sure rate hike from the Fed and that will be enough to cause another leg higher in the Dollar and the USDSGD pair.
A worse than expected NFP however, will not definitely negate a rate hike from the Fed, and this kind of a scenario will likely cause much more uncertainty and volatility in financial markets.
For now, technically there is no reversal signal, only a signals for a pause in the trend.
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