USDSGD – Weekly outlook – April 25 2019

USD/SGD Outlook and Technical Analysis for binary options 

Introduction

The Singapore economy strengthened as reflected by the declining trend of the USD/SGD on the monthly and weekly charts. As Q1 2019 came to a close, we start to see a bottoming of that bearish trend which shows the possible weakness of the Singapore dollar. Read on for a closer analysis of technical and fundamental drivers of the USDSGD.

Singapore Fundamentals 

Singapore 30 (SG30SGD): Weekly Chart

Singapore 30 Index - Weekly Chart - 25 April 2019

Following a bearish hidden divergence on the weekly chart of the SG39SGD, the price plummets by 8.12% after which an opposing bullish regular divergence signalled positive sentiment towards the Singapore 30. This showed a strengthening of the Singapore economy and consequently the Singapore dollar.

Singapore 30 (SG30SGD): Daily Chart

Singapore 30 Index - Daily Chart - 25 April 2019

After a bullish rally signalled by a series of bullish divergence patterns on 18 March ’19 and 29 March ’19, the bears break below bullish accumulation on 24 March 19, an indication that the trend is changing to bearish. This is not favourable for the Singapore dollar.

United States Fundamentals 

GDP Price Index

The GDP Price Index evaluates variations in the costs of goods and services which are included in GDP calculation. This value is deducted from the nominal GDP to get the substantive GDP.

Durable Goods Orders

The indicator shows the changes in the value of the purchase of durable goods (first row). It is a key indicator of production patterns and investment activity. The indicator though is dynamic as it includes orders in the aviation industry that are rare but expensive. 

Technical Analysis

As always, we’ll be deploying a top-down analysis starting with the monthly chart.

USDSGD Monthly Chart

USD/SGD - Monthly Chart - 25 April 2019

The above monthly chart flowing from a bearish swing on November ’17 to a bullish swing on May ’18 reveals a currently threatened bearish swing by bullish pressures on March ’19. Let’s take a step lower to the weekly chart for a breakdown of the monthly consecutive bars.

USDSGD: Weekly Chart

A recap from a previous post, the bearish inclination was launched by a growth of bearish pressure on 15 October ’18 with resistance established at 1.38214 a level the bulls have not been able to break via a bullish closing candle. 

The Singapore dollar gained strengthened following the bearish accumulation resistance by roughly 2.37%. Recently, the USD is showing strength against the Singdollar as the price breaks through bearish accumulation resistance on 25 March ’19. This week, however, a more current bearish resistance flagged on 08 Apr ’19 is threatened.

USDSGD Daily Chart

The USDSGD has been in a rollercoaster on the daily chart, as the foreign exchange of the USD/SGD bottomed through Q1 2019. The pair finally triggered a bullish regular divergence on 27 March ’19, then entered into a range establishing resistance at 1.35756 and 1.35658.  A price close above these resistance levels will guarantee a bullish trend, hence a weakening of the Singapore dollar.

USDSGD H4 Chart

The 4hour chart presents great swing trading prospects starting from a bullish accumulation on 10 April ’19, an opposite bearish accumulation on 12 April ’19 as shown above. A breakout of bearish resistance was triggered on 19 April ’19 resulting in a 0.55% price rally.

Conclusion and Projection

Prior to publishing this post, the USD/SGD already triggered a bullish accumulation pattern on 23 April ‘19 of the daily view, and later triggered price close above the critical resistance of 1.35704 on the 4hour chart. In combination with a golden cross of MACD on the weekly chart, we look forward to the US dollar gain more grounds against the Singapore dollar.

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James Martin

I'm based in London ( England, UK )
I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.

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