EURUSD weekly analysis August 08 – August 12, 2016

Weekly timeframe

After several weeks it’s time to update the longer term picture.

All the lines from the Daily chart are left on this weekly chart plus the 17-month-old consolidation range defined by the blue lines.

The MACD holds bearish here, but the candlesticks price action tells a different story. Notably, two weeks ago a bullish engulfing pattern has formed here, close to the 1.09 support level from Brexit low. Additionally, if we take into consideration the Brexit’s week candle with the long wick we get a very bullish picture. Again the target to the upside would be as previously, the 1.16 – 1.17 zone.

By a close below 1.09, this bullish scenario will be erased.

eurusd-weekly-august8-16

EURUSD weekly chart – Some bullish signs here

Daily timeframe

The pair remains indecisive and has switched direction again last week after the US Non-Farm Payroll report showed large positive surprise.

Now, traders should be aware that a new channel may be forming, as shown in the chart below. Support is around 1.0950 and resistance is towards 1.1240.

The pair has spent 30 trading days in a range and more of this kind of price action still seems most likely for the pair. A strong fundamental catalyst is needed to tilt the pair in either direction.

At the moment, it looks more probable that the pair will continue to move lower towards the support of the channel (1.0980 – 1.0950 zone) before it can move higher.

eurusd-daily-8august1-6

EURUSD Daily chart – Possibly a new range?

 

4h timeframe

Here’s the same channel with the weekly and monthly pivot points added.

The Friday decline was strong but so was the rebound from 1.1044 giving an unclear technical picture of the pair across multiple timeframes.

We can see that both the monthly and weekly pivot support 1 coincide with the lower trendline of the channel.At the moment there is not much we can say except wait for more clarity, wait for the pair to hit a prominent support or resistance level and enter from there.

eurusd-4_hour-august8-2016

EURUSD 4h chart – Wait to see which direction the pair will choose

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James Martin

I'm based in London ( England, UK )
I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.

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