EURUSD Weekly outlook – 18th March 2021

EURUSD Forecast  

Introduction

The binary options brokers have to be on the lookout for upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings that would influence the increment or reduction of rates in the economy as they review the economy’s general condition amid the second wave of covid-19.

EURO and US News

ECB 

The ECB president will be speaking through an online meeting with the delegates from women’s rights and the French National Assembly’s equal opportunities. 

She has more influence over the value of Euro, and her message carries clues regarding the future of the monetary policies in the Euro, which is why investors try to scrutinize her public engagements.  

A more hawkish than expected speech is good for the Euro.

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

The survey of numbers of persons filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week. 

This information may be lagging, but it is a valuable tool for consideration in decision-making regarding monetary policy. An outcome lower than expectancy is good for the US dollar.

The forecast is 704K while the Previous is 712K

EURUSD Technical Analysis

 Monthly Chart Objective: Bullish and slowing 

EURUSD Chart (trading view) - 17th March 2021

Monthly Resistances level: 1.19198, 1.21546, 1.25558

Monthly Support level: 1.03402, 1.10293

The supply zone of 1.21545 and 1.25558 of March and February 2018 is a strong resistance zone for the EURUSD pair. 

There is a considerable likelihood that the sellers will dominate the market for a long time, as we see a bearish divergence plays out.

As months unfold, we may see a bullish divergence play out for a correction phase in the market before the downtrend continues due to the effects of the covid-19 vaccines in the euro zones and positive feeds from other actives.

Weekly Chart Bullish

Weekly Resistance Levels: 1.25000, 1.22431

Weekly Support Levels: 1.17000, 1.12430, 1.07666

The bulls were able to rally the price up to the 1.25000 level of resistance before meeting the bears’ pressure. The pin bar candle of February 22, 2021, indicated that the bears have taken over the market, and it will likely push down the price towards the support level of 1.17000.

If the Bears can close below the 1.17000 support level, we may see the 1.12430 zones give way. However, if the bears cannot close below the 1.17000 level, the bulls will push back the price higher to the resistance zone.

Daily Chart Projections: Bullish 

Daily Resistance levels: 1.21896, 1.23496

Daily Support levels: 1.19524, 1.18358

The 1.21896 resistance zone of EURUSD has been tested twice. It has rejected the bull’s advancement around that zone with a bearish engulfing candle breaking down all the bullish accumulation levels. 

From the daily chart, we expect the bearish trend to continue by closing the support zones of 1.18358.

However, if the support level is holding the pressure, we may get a reversal to the upside from that level as investors await news from the central banks in the few days to come.

Conclusion and Weekly Price Objectives

The outcome of the FOMC and ECB meetings will direct the EURUSD in the direction it expects in the coming week. 

The US president ordered that the covid-19 vaccines be made available to all adults before the end of April, while in Euro, there are concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccines.

We expect the EURUSD pair to be unstable for this week until the meetings’ outcome is known.

I'm based in London ( England, UK )
I've been a professional trader for over 5 years.
Currently I work as forex analyst for different investment companies.

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